Thursday, March 20, 2008

Funny Math

There is an odd misperception that somehow it is now impossible for Senator Clinton to overtake Senator Obama in nonsuperdelegates unless Michigan and Florida are included. This is just false. WITHOUT COUNTING Michigan and Florida, as of today, Senator Clinton is behind in delegates by 118. In the upcoming contests 845 delegates are at stake. Note, Senator Clinton does not need to win every last remaining delegate to end up in the lead. Particularly if she does well in Pennsylvania, as it appears she will, and she gets the bulk of that state's 179 delegates, it is anybody's guess where the delegate count will end up. Then, there are the 18 delegates currently pledged to John Edwards. Edwards may well release them, and who knows which way the will go come convention time. Certainly some and possibly a majority will vote for Senator Clinton.

As usual, I don't understand why the media does not explain and publicize these mathematical truths. But I thought I'd make my own small effort to do so.

UPDATE: Slate, not a site friendly to Clinton, has an interesting online tool so you can do your own projections regarding delegates.

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3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the point is that NEITHER candidate can win the nomination without the super delegates.....

March 20, 2008 at 2:03 PM  
Blogger Heidi Li Feldman said...

This is true as well, but it is an independent point from the one I was making about the "regular" delegates. Thanks for the input.

March 20, 2008 at 2:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think your analysis is a bit implausible -- even if logically possible. If Hillary Clinton were to win 60% of the vote in every single one of the remaining states, she would gain a net total of 114 delegates in these states over Barack Obama (according to Slate's Delegate Calculator). This would still leave her short of the lead by 4 delegates.

March 20, 2008 at 6:40 PM  

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